Winter Range Forecast
Live 7-day EV range forecast by ZIP. Enter your car and ZIP, get the next 7 days of expected range in miles, based on real forecast temperatures and published cold-weather retention curves.
272 mi EPA rated range
How The Forecast Works
When you enter a ZIP, the tool does two API calls. First, it asks zippopotam.us for the latitude and longitude of that ZIP. Second, it asks Open-Meteo for the next 7 days of daily min and max temperatures at that location. Open-Meteo aggregates the NOAA GFS, NWS HRRR, and ECMWF models depending on region, so the forecast comes from the same data feeds that the National Weather Service uses. For each day, the tool averages the daily min and max to get a rough daily mean temperature, then applies the Recurrent Motors 2023 cold-weather retention curve (10,000+ EVs tracked) to convert that into expected range retention as a percentage. Multiply by your EPA rated range and you get the miles column.
Why Average Temperature Works (Mostly)
EV range retention is a nonlinear function of temperature, but it's monotonic: colder is always worse, and the slope gets steeper as you approach 0°F. Averaging the daily min and max is a reasonable approximation for commute-scale trips (20-100 miles over a few hours), because most drivers don't spend the whole day driving at the overnight low. For a long dawn departure where you'll drive for three hours before the sun warms things up, treat this as optimistic and drop another 5-10% from the estimate.
What This Does NOT Include
- Wind chill.The retention curve is based on ambient temperature only. A 20°F day with a 30 mph wind burns noticeably more heat than a calm 20°F day. If there's a wind warning, assume the worst day in the table is closer to the displayed number minus one row.
- Preconditioning.If you pre-heat your battery and cabin while plugged in at home, you start the day with a warm battery and keep 3-7% more of your range, especially at 0-20°F. Use the car's app to schedule this.
- Cabin heat load on short trips. Five-minute school runs pay the heat-up cost but never get efficient. Short-trip winter range is always worse than what a freeway-only number suggests.
- Heat pump advantage. If your EV has a heat pump (most 2023+ Teslas, Ioniq 5/6, EV6, Mach-E 2023+, ID.4, etc.), add about 5% back on days above 20°F. Below 20°F heat pumps lose most of their advantage.
Sources
- Recurrent Motors 2023 cold-weather EV range study (10,000+ EVs)
- Open-Meteo Weather API (ECMWF + NOAA models)
- Zippopotam.us US ZIP → lat/lng
- AAA EV winter range study (2019, 2023 updates)
Frequently asked
Within about 5-8% for most 2020+ EVs on a dry road with moderate traffic. The retention curve comes from the Recurrent Motors 2023 study tracking 10,000+ real EVs across model years. Some cars (older Nissan Leaf, pre-2020 Bolt) do worse in the cold than the fleet average; some heat-pump-equipped cars above 20°F do slightly better. For commute-range planning, treat the number as a confident estimate and pad 10% if you're close to empty.